Top 10 Riskiest NBA Contracts in 2028: Who's Overpaid? | NBA Analysis (2026)

In the ever-evolving world of the NBA, the topic of player contracts and their potential risks is a fascinating one. Today, we delve into the future, specifically the 2027-28 NBA season, to explore the most dangerous contracts and the implications they carry.

The Risky Business of NBA Contracts

The NBA, with its complex collective bargaining agreement and luxury tax system, has created a landscape where team finances are a strategic game. As we look ahead, certain contracts stand out as potential burdens, and understanding why is crucial.

Rookie-Scale Contracts: A Double-Edged Sword

First-round picks, with their special extension privileges, often become the foundation of a team's future. However, multiple players on similar rookie-scale extensions can overextend a franchise. The Detroit Pistons, for instance, have Cade Cunningham on a hefty deal, turning them into contenders. But what happens when these players don't reach their potential?

Aging Stars and Their Price Tags

The NBA's system allows older players to command higher salaries, but as we've seen with Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum, injuries can quickly turn these deals into burdens. Embiid, once an MVP, now struggles with health, and Tatum's Achilles injury serves as a reminder of the risks associated with aging stars.

The Utah Jazz's Conundrum

Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr., both with Utah, represent interesting cases. Markkanen, despite his improved scoring, is paid like a franchise player for a non-playoff team. Jackson, on the other hand, is a talented player stuck in a rebuilding situation. The Jazz's decision to trade for him carries significant risk, especially with the potential downside of giving up three first-round picks.

New York Knicks' Role Player Dilemma

OG Anunoby, now with the Knicks, is an intriguing case. He's earning star-level money, but is he a star? His role as a secondary scorer and defender is vital, but at what cost to the team's overall roster construction?

The Health Factor

Jakob Pöltl's contract with the Raptors is a concern due to his age and durability issues. In a league where big men need to be healthy, Pöltl's contract may become a burden if his health doesn't hold up.

Mikal Bridges and the Knicks' Future

Mikal Bridges, acquired from the Nets, is a defensive specialist and spacer. However, his four-year, $150 million extension limits the Knicks' flexibility. With an exciting youth movement around Tyrese Maxey, the team might find itself in a bind with Bridges' contract.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The Riskiest Contract?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA and NBA Finals MVP, has the riskiest contract on our list. His $273.3 million obligation is a staggering amount, but the Thunder's decision to lock him in was a move most franchises would make. The question remains: Can he live up to this contract, and will his performance justify the risk?

Final Thoughts

As we've explored, the world of NBA contracts is a delicate balance of talent, potential, and financial risk. While these contracts may seem dangerous, they also represent the league's commitment to its top talent. It's a fascinating insight into the strategic thinking behind team management and the future of the NBA.

What do you think? Are these contracts truly dangerous, or just a necessary risk in the high-stakes world of professional basketball?

Top 10 Riskiest NBA Contracts in 2028: Who's Overpaid? | NBA Analysis (2026)
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